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急速赛车彩票:Jing Fu Yuntong He Li: The Three Cornerstones of Value Investment

时间:2018/4/17 18:33:44  作者:  来源:  浏览:0  评论:0
内容摘要: It is a great honour to come again to the BTV5 "Investors Say" section. Major topics of the interview on four perspectives: 1. in...

It is a great honour to come again to the BTV5 "Investors Say" section. Major topics of the interview on four perspectives: 1. individual investors should buy stocks rather than 50ETF; 2. use ROE / PB more than 8% as a rough standard to buy the company, but do not superstitious; 3. not the company Growth and company make money; equal the number; 4. Differentiate gambling, speculation, investment, please click on the link to view the previous show. The main contents of this program are the three cornerstones of value investing that we have summed up, for the benefit of investors, and we welcome you to enjoy the audience:

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Interview video | Please click here

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In our view, value investing is made up of three cornerstones. Only by understanding the cornerstones can the stocks be further selected:

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I. Look at the stock with the eyes of entrepreneurs. If we really want to buy stocks, we must not treat it like a gambler like a gambler. Instead, we must invest in such an investment with the eyes of an entrepreneur. When we consider whether we are willing to own a family At the time of the company, many stock picking problems will be solved.

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Second, look at the market with a balanced mindset. We do not want to excessively focus on the volatility of the market. One of the biggest characteristics of investment is that where there are many people, it is dangerous. Therefore, we must face market volatility, and use the market's wrong pricing to buy stocks at low prices, because the value of the company does not change in the short term, and the market price changes.

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Third, buy stocks within the margin of safety. I think that the margin of safety can bring you a more quantifiable indicator. Within 70% of the valuation, it is safety margin , and I recommend using the cash discount method for valuation.

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We will update our case for value investment practice and the summary of “Three Steps” tomorrow. Welcome to follow us and wish everything goes well!

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The following is the specific interview content

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Host:

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In yesterday's program, we invited us to participate in last year's "Institutional Investors Nuggets Contest" and led our team to achieve very good results. The third place, He Li came to the show and introduced him. How to use value investment to achieve good results. Today we still invited him to the scene together to learn more about how our regular investors are to be a successful value investor \n?

Yesterday's program was still quite interesting, so today we are not actually operating. How can we be a good value investor can make stable money in the market?

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Fund Manager He Li :

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I think the host doesn't worry first, because we invest in value is actually a long-term stage to clarify the logic, so there is a saying that “is not an emergency”, we first understand the logic of value investment and What is the cornerstone, and then we can do this value investment to have a multiplier effect.

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But before we get started, we can go back and review a rough estimate of a formula that we shared with you earlier. This may be better understood.

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Host:

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When He Liyi comes up, he reminds everyone not to worry first. We must be able to operate the basic knowledge firmly afterwards. Let's take yesterday's knowledge and review it to lay a solid foundation.

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Fund Manager He Li:

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yesterday it mention two quantifiable indicators today to tell us something about what kind of time is "fuzzy right." Return on net assets divided by the book value is greater than 8% of the time , we think this company is relatively certain margin of safety, is relatively inexpensive . course, after I said this must go to consider 8% is not able to stabilize, then it is not persistent can continue to live .

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Of course, there is one more thing that you should not believe in. If you really can make money by dividing the two numbers, that's too easy. Explain how this ROE ROE is calculated. Some software, some software does not have this indicator. In simple terms, the actual earnings per share is divided by the net assets per share.

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Host:

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Earnings per share divided by net assets per share is the ROE we need.

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Fund Manager He Li:

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Then, the market price is the price per share divided by the net assets per share. In simple terms, the market price is the market price of the net assets we buy. The rate of return on net assets per share is actually a percentage of how much we actually produce for each dollar.

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Host:

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Okay, just as He Li told us to use 8% to evaluate it, it was "ambiguously correct." It was drawn that probably a good company is long, but there are some specific details of the requirements. Next we will give you more. Will you introduce us in detail? \n?

Fund Manager He Li:

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This is the case. In fact, our financial analysis, including valuation, may account for only 5% to 10% of our research process for the entire company. we really want to go be value of the investment, then we come to understand the value of investment in what . speak with you yesterday value investment, or investment or, most of all make Enterprises may grow their money for 5 years 10 years to shareholders' profits, free cash flow. Only with such an understanding can we truly understand the cornerstone of value investment. So the cornerstone of the first value investment to share with you is that if we really want to buy stocks, then we mustn’t treat it like a gambler like a gambler. Instead, we must use the eyes of an entrepreneur. To make such an investment, or to put ourselves in a position to think about it: I would or would not like to, for example, a company owner of a company bank , a car company, a insurance, , I would like to buy such a company.

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Once there is such a perspective to make this investment, then there may be a very interesting idea. Because we are very likely to feel that, for example, steel industry , it may not be so sunny relative to development, then we may not be willing to invest in a steel company, but seeing, for example, insurance companies, especially life insurance companies, we see The middle class has more and more consumer life insurance.

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It is very likely that we are willing to invest in such a company. Once we have this perspective, many problems can be solved. This also avoids investing 50 or 60 companies. Why value investing always focuses on investment, this is a cornerstone.

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Host:

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The first big cornerstone is to have a vision. It is good or bad. When its shareholders must choose a company that can make money in the future, it won't be said that choosing a company that will not make money in the future

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Fund Manager He Li:

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The second problem is that we should not pay too much attention to market fluctuations. Should there be a balanced mindset to deal with the market, why should there be a balanced mindset? That is to say, do not pay too much attention to the volatility of the market. Many people, including themselves, have developed from retail investors in the early days. I hope that I will buy stocks today and limit the next morning. It is best to continue to limit daily. I have been stocking for 10 years, and the limit stock I have bought can be counted with ten fingers from both hands. So we should really use the volatility when we really invest.

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What is the use of volatility? We went to buy when the market panicked, and we went away from the market when the market was crazy. One of the biggest characteristics of investment is that where there are many people, it is dangerous. In the same way, the less people there are, the more often there will be gold. Therefore, we must face up to market fluctuations. Don’t say that the market has fallen and we are dejected. We feel that life is hopeless.

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Host:

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That's one of the many panicking parts. It's wrong.

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Fund Manager He Li:

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We should take advantage of these panic. When the streets are full of gods, we should stay away from this market. So this is an attitude to deal with market volatility.

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Host:

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This principle we all understand, after many years of experience in the market, but it is really difficult. When the market was particularly hot, then his mind was less clear. The second point, this attitude actually I think you are particularly plain. This sentence is also particularly real. We must ask ourselves to repeatedly ponder and exercise our own mentality, right? This is the second issue of mindset. What is the third cornerstone?

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Fund Manager He Li:

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The third cornerstone is that I think one thing many people ignore. When we go to the market to buy cabbage and buy a bag, we must look at whether it is cheap and can't say good-looking, so we can freely bid. But in the stock market, everyone seems to like to say that as long as the company is good, then I can buy it and I can make money. However, the real situation is not the case. I think if we really want to invest, we must buy it on the margin of safety. To put it plainly, we hope that when it comes to investing, it is worth buying a dollar for a price of 5 cents. This is a very important point. This is actually Buffett's often repeated sentence.

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We believe that the margin of safety can bring you a more quantitative indicator. We believe that at least a 70% discount should be made. When buying, there is a margin of safety. Otherwise, our valuation is 10 billion. When we bought 12,000, it was obvious that we bought it during the bubble phase. So at 70 billion, that could be a margin of safety.

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Host:

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This sounds reasonable. But there is a problem, that is, within 70% of this valuation is safe, this valuation is how to calculate when the valuation is reasonable, what to use as a standard to calculate it?

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Fund Manager He Li:

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One very important point of value investing is that we want valuation. Because we don't have a valuation, we don't have a margin of safety. We don't say how much a company's share price is above the stock price. We can make money, so I think that if we really want to value it, what we have been using is also recommended. One idea of ??everyone is the discounted cash flow method. However, the discounted cash flow method involves many indicators, such as discount rate and capital expenditure. Because we can't directly estimate the net profit, I give you a few examples to understand this complicated thing step by step.

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Host:

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Great, use this simple representation to understand esoteric things. Let us briefly introduce it.

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Fund Manager He Li:

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Let's start with an ideal company. This company will exist for two years. Note that it only has two years, and it does not have capital expenditures every year. Then there is no risk in this society without interest rate . No risk What is the interest rate ? What is the interest rate for our bank? This is 0; What is capital expenditure? It is this company that buys plants for expansion and then invests in research and development, and then goes to buy and sell the equity of others. When we don't have all of these, how do we value it? If the company had a net profit of 10 billion yuan a year and there are two years, then we give it a rough estimate of 20 billion yuan.

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This is the simplest method of cash flow discounting, but our real situation is that we don't have to do anything every year. There is an interest rate when the money is in the bank. What is the real situation? Let's consider a further, relatively complicated one: If we assume that the entire bank's risk-free interest rate is 5%, what does that mean? It means that my 105 dollars next year is 100 dollars this year, so how can we further calculate the next cash flow? If the annual free cash flow is 10 billion, then we need to use such a formula.

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This formula means that we generate free cash flow in a certain year, or if I use the previous example, the next year is 105, and then the market interest rate is 5%, then this is equivalent to how much we can pay this year to deposit in order to get 105 of the next year. This is a process that has never come to the present. It sounds complicated and I will continue to give you an example.

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Host:

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In order to achieve such a digital goal next year, how much cash I should be this year.

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Fund Manager He Li

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We say that 5% of the market interest rate is risk-free. I want to have 105 in my account next year. How much will this year save? This answer is easy for everyone to figure out. However, if it is long, we will give you specific examples. Under the premise of just that, we have further added a risk-free interest rate. This company will generate 10 billion free cash flow each year this year and next year. How can we value it at a risk-free rate of 5%? We will use the formula just now. This formula may seem complicated, but we must understand it. Because only by understanding this we know Buffett's approximate valuation method. Moreover, this valuation method is also recognized by institutions, especially foreign institutions. Then in the first year and the second year, we have generated 10 billion free cash flows. This is two 100, this represents my first year is it is equivalent to how much money I was at the beginning of the year, and finally calculated is probably about 9.5 billion, that is, my 10 billion at the end of the year was 9.5 billion at the beginning of the year, this is the concept. Then the value is two years because our 10 billion will be discounted to two years.

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It is the 10 billion yuan that will be discounted this year. It is actually two years, and it will be two years at the beginning of this year. We will divide by 1 + 5% of the quadratic, this value is calculated to be about 9.1 billion. The two added values ??are 18.6 billion. The logic of this valuation method is relatively clear. To put it plainly, how much money this company has created for our shareholders, and this money cannot be debt and is free.

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This is a core concept. One of Buffett's favorite words is: how to value the company? This is the value of this company in the year in which the company survived, how many cash flows he can generate for the shareholders, and then we discount it back. However, it should be added that this value is also a rough estimate and it should not be too superstitious. But at least this value, we have a bottom. After this, we have a safety margin that is equivalent to avoiding many risks. For example, if we don't specifically consider capital expenditures, then our margin of safety may be larger. For example, when we fold , we will buy . If everyone think I do very well, I bought 70% off with very right.

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Host:

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He Li introduced us to the three cornerstones. Only by stepping on these three cornerstones can I be able to choose the companies that will be valuable in the future. So how do we go after the election? After the advertisement, please tell how to continue the introduction.

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Welcome back to the show, He Li, I think if you can use some of the listed companies in our A-share market to give us further explanations, such as how a free cash flow in a certain year we look for, in the end, how much is it? Is the current rate at 5%? Can you explain it to us?

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Fund Manager He Li:

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I give you an example of a Hong Kong stock. This may be more clear. This is a concept that everyone feels is vague. We usually estimate it simply as a net profit minus capital expenditures, regardless of other financial statements. For example, buying a factory, investing in this R\u0026D, and buying other equity, the rest is free cash flow. Freedom means that as the company's major shareholder, the money can be freely spent and can be expanded and reproduced. The discount rate is generally more than 5%. Now the 10-year Treasury rate is about 3.5% to 4%. We are relatively conservative, so we use about 5%. This means that we don't have to do anything. I can find something to replace investment. When I lay down every day, it would be better to say that the bank will make money for us. If it is relatively conservative, it would be about 5%.

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Host:

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Just now we said that we are in this Hong Kong stock. So is A-shares also used to calculate in such a way?

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Fund Manager He Li:

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This logic works for any job, and as long as we think we can estimate it, then how to find this value is the most critical issue. For example, a lot of people in A shares particularly like Kweichow Moutai this stock, if we can estimate, for example, how many bottle canes per year it sells and the net profit per bottle, we can estimate this value. For example, if we have 5 years, then we can add 5 sets of data. In 10 years, 10 sets of data are added together. If we have a special understanding of this company, we even know that 20, there are 20 groups of data, then we just know. What is the 20-year valuation? In fact, what is the discounted free cash flow generated by valuation after 20 years?

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Host:

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Just now you laid the foundation for us to invest in value with three cornerstones. From these aspects we summed up how to choose this value investment?

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Fund Manager He Li:

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To share a word for you: Choose a good company in a familiar area and buy it at a cheap price. Please pay attention to the exciting content of the next program. Thank you.


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